This election analysis from California Catholic Daily applies to the votes on the referendum to require family notification if a minor wants an abortion (that was defeated) also probably applies to all elections these days. The "unmarried, unchurched and childless" segment of our society is probably the fastest growing and might be most inclined to vote and contribute to candidates. Formidable!
Anatomy of defeat
Exit poll lays failure of Proposition 4 at feet of unmarried, unchurched and childless
Self-described Catholics, Christians, married couples and parents approved of Proposition 4 – the family notification before a minor’s abortion initiative – by wide margins on Nov. 4, but their support was not enough to pass the measure. The Secretary of State reports that Proposition 4 failed by a margin of 52.1% no to 47.9% yes.
Details on the breakdown of how Californians voted were published yesterday in an Election Day exit poll commissioned by the Sacramento Bee and conducted by the polling firm Edison/Mitofsky, which interviewed 2098 voters.
According to the Sacramento Bee exit poll, 60% of voters who identified themselves as Catholic voted in favor of the family notification initiative, while 59% of those who described themselves as “Protestant/Christian” voted yes. Respondents who said they belonged to no religion voted 84%-16% against Proposition 4.
Among voters who said they attend church weekly, the margin was 76% yes to 24% no, while those who said they attend church “occasionally” voted 56% to 44% against the initiative. Those who said they never attend church voted 78% to 22% against Proposition 4.
Married voters, according to the exit poll, favored the measure 59% to 41%, with unmarried voters opposing it 66% to 34%. Parents approved of Proposition 4 by a 10% margin – 55% yes to 45% no.
The poll also identified respondents by race, finding that whites voted 54% to 46% against the initiative; African-Americans favored the measure 54% to 46%; Hispanics voted 55% to 45% in favor; and Asians voted 58% yes to 42% no.
Proposition 4 lost among Democrats and independents, the Bee reported, with Democrats voting 63% no to 37% yes, and independents rejecting the measure 54% to 46%. Republicans overwhelmingly favored the initiative, 70% yes to 30% no, the poll found.
From the Detroit Free Press
Clearly, the most astonishing part of Barack Obama's win is the racial milestone it represents. But rivaling that is the way Obama won. The massive, nationwide turnout of young voters is a huge first for a candidate for president, or nearly any other office.
Every election, there's some candidate who says they'll win because they'll mobilize young voters, who typically are unreliable and show up in sparse numbers. Most years, that candidate loses, waiting for the surge to materialize.
Obama first turned the tables on that front in the primaries, where he rode a surge of youth votes to early victories. In Iowa, for example, the number of young Democrats voting in the Iowa caucuses jumped 135% over the 2004 number.
But Obama really got young people to deliver for him in Tuesday's general election, and in many states, that was the difference. Exit polls showed Obama led McCain by as much as 68-32% among voters aged 18-29. The youth vote is being widely credited for Democrat’s surprising wins in states such as Indiana and Virginia. And in Michigan, Republican support among young people dropped by double-digits from 2004 to 2008, according to exit poll data, while the overall youth vote surged significantly.
Obama's campaign figured out what almost no one before them had: how to get young people to the polls. Voters ages 18-29 make up 21% of the electorate, and exit polls suggest they made up 18% of voters Tuesday. If those numbers hold up, that's an 86% turnout -- and a big reason Obama is president-elect today.